Interdisciplinary multicriteria analysis in the simulation of complex negotiations

a study on safeguards

Resumo

The article presents the use of the multicriteria method PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations) in the simulation of complex negotiations to apply safeguards on nuclear material to be used in the propulsion of submarines of a Non-Nuclear Weapon State (NNWS). Therefore, the article proceeds into four steps. Firstly, it discusses some of the possible variables present in the context of the negotiations of Arrangements between the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and an NNWS regarding applying safeguards on the nuclear material for the propulsion of submarines. Secondly and thirdly, it presents an overview of the multicriteria methodology and the PROMETHEE method, which incorporates interdisciplinary parameters for robust and exhaustive modeling, presenting its main characteristics in using attributes with which one seeks to identify and measure the preferences of decision-makers. In this way, the method allows the ordering of alternatives for making strategic decisions. Finally, the last section presents the results of simulations carried out with multidisciplinary teams involving Brazilian civilian and military researchers.